这篇介绍了农业中绿色革命，提出农业中的绿色革命不可逆转，亚洲地区的农业绿色革命发展迅速，但中国在进行这场绿色革命中面临诸多挑战-技术、市场、政策等等问题。文章最后提到绿色革命可能导致富裕的农民越来月富裕，英语论文，从而引发巨大的福利和权益的问题；但哪怕只有一小部分农村人口进入现代世纪尽管大部分仍然落后,但形势将会高度爆炸性。
INTRODUCTION
Today, in fact, the socioeconomic effects of the green revolution have rightly moved to the forefront of the public debate.The term 'Green Revolution' came into use in the late 1960s to cover 'the new technology' and its then-predicted consequences. This technology comprised new, high-yielding varieties (HYVs) of cereals,especially dwarf wheats and rices, in association with chemical fertilizers and agrochemicals, and with controlled water-supply (usually involving irrigation) and new methods of cultivation, including mechanization. All of these together were seen as a 'package of practices' to supersede 'traditional' technology and to be adopted as a whole. The term 'Green Revolution' seems to have been invented by William S.Gaud, an administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Aid(USAID) (Wade, 1974), which may be seen as significant because of the implication that the 'new technology' would not only increase production and banish hunger but in doing so assuage agrarian unrest and,with it, the danger of Red Revolution; for this, it must be remembered,
was the period of the Cold War and of American involvement in Vietnam.
The increasing use of the new high-yielding varieties of cereal seeds during the past decade has undoubtedly brought about immense agricultural and social progress in the developed world. Contrary to all expectations, however, the application of these technological innovations, commonly known today as the 'green revolution', has not resulted in similarly favorable developments in the underdeveloped countries,particularly of Asia, but rather seems to have shaken the economic foundation of their agricultural populations and given rise to unexpected developments.Some observers still maintain that the very momentum of the green revolution will eventually be strong enough to bring about the gradual transformation of agriculture which is an essential precondition for development. Considering the structure of the prevailing agrarian systems, however, it seems more likely that rather than improving rural conditions such a transformation will primarily benefit the already privileged farmers while bypassing the bulk of the rural people and even reducing their chances of gaining a livelihood in agriculture.
This lecture aim to exploit the impacts of the‘Green Revolution’on agriculture and farmers in China. For the lecture will, on the one hand, look back over the valley of the years at the research project on technology and agrarian change and discussing certain further changes that have taken place in the study area and elsewhere in South Asia in those ten years.
The project, it should be said, was inter-disciplinary; involved both sample surveys and studies in depth; and can claim to have attained the fruitful relationship between disciplines and between techniques of field study that some have described as 'hard to achieve' (e.g., Hoben and Timberg, 1980).
On the other hand, The reflexions presented in this , therefore, are based largely on recent literature on the subject particularly with respect to social developments in China.
DISCUSSION
The application of science and technology to traditional agriculture has begun to produce dramatic results, above all in Asia.It is clear, then, that the 'Green Revolution' has increased inter-regional disparities in agricultural production and so in prosperity(Farmer, 1974b; Corbridge, 1984]. It must be remembered, however, that the HYVs and 'the new technology' are still spreading to new areas.It is now generally known that major technological breakthroughs in food production are believed to have lifted the specter of famine in the immediate future and to have postponed the prospect of Malthusian population disaster. Startling developments have been accomplished in wheat, rice and corn—major food staples in much of the developing world. The possibilities for doubling or even tripling production are based upon new high-yield varieties coupled with adequate supplies of water, fertilizer, pesticides and modern equipment. Overnight, the image of agriculture in the developing countries has changed from that of an economic backwater to that of a major potential contributor to overall development. The new varieties are rapidly spreading both within countries and across national boundaries. A recent estimate of the International Agricultural Development Service of the U.S, Department of Agriculture reveals that in Asia alone the estimated acreage planted with these new high-yield varieties rose from 200 acres in 1964-65 to 20 million in 1967-68. Traditional food-importing nations like the Philippines and Pakistan are becoming self-sufficient and have the prospect of becoming net food exporters.It will be no easy task to achieve the potential increased production offered by the new technology, particularly when it involves millions upon millions of diverse farms and farmers scattered over the countryside. If the increased production is in fact obtained, this will automatically produce a whole new set of second-generation problems which must be faced if development is to be sustained and accelerated. Therefore, two considerations need to be borne in mind.
First, there is reason to believe that the further spread of new varieties will not be as fast as early successes might suggest.
Second, the new problems arising out of the spread of the new technology, whatever its
speed, need to be foreseen and acted upon now. The probable developments in each case have the greatest significance for economic growth and for the conduct of international relations.
The reasons for believing that the new technology will not in fact spread nearly as widely or as rapidly as supposed and predicted include, first, the fact that the availability of irrigated land imposes at least a short-run limit to the spread of the new high-yield varieties. Most of these require irrigation and careful water control throughout the growing cycle. In China about one-fourth to one-half of the rice lands are irrigated; the remainder are dependent upon monsoons and seasonal rains. The speed with which additional land can be converted to the new technology depends on the rapidity with which new irrigation facilities can be constructed; and here the high capital costs are likely to be a retarding factor.Large-scale irrigation projects can seriously strain the investment capacity of developing nations.
Further, significant additional costs are involved in converting existing irrigation systems to the requirements of modern agriculture. Many of the old gravity irrigation systems were not designed to provide the sophisticated water controls demanded by the new varieties.(For example, each plot must be controlled separately through-out the growing season,)
Second, there are doubts about the ability of existing markets to handle the increased product. Storage facilities and transport are inadequate and crop grading often deficient. Not only must the marketing system be expanded to handle a larger output; there also is an increased need for farm supplies and equipment. Fertilizers, pesticides and insecticides must be available in the right quantities, at the right times, and in the right places.Given the inadequacy of the agricultural infrastructure, the need to expand and modernize marketing systems is likely to reduce the pace of the Revolution,because many of the new varieties, especially rice, do not appeal to the tastes of most consumers, it is difficult to calculate
the size of the market. Some argue that until newer varieties which are closer to popular tastes are developed, the market will be limited.
Third, the adoption of the new technology is likely to be much slower where the crop is a basic food staple, grown by a farmer for family consumption. Such farmers are understandably reluctant to experiment with the very survival of their families.Peasant producers are obviously far more numerous in China than are commercial farmers and the task of converting them to a more modern technology is considerably more difficult. So far, spectacular results have been achieved primarily among the relatively large commercial farmers. Some semi-subsistence farmers have begun to grow the new varieties,but the rate at which they adopt them may be slower.Fourth, farmers must learn new farming skills and expertise of a higher order than was needed in traditional methods of cultivation.The new agronomic requirements are quite different as regards planting dates and planting depths; fertilizer rates and timing; insecticide, pesticide and fungicide applications;watering and many others. Unless appropriate extension measures are taken In China to educate farmers with respect to these new farming complexities the higher yields will not be obtained.
Fifth, many of the new varieties are non-photosensitive and the shorter term will allow two or three crops per year instead of one. Multiple cropping is good, but there may be difficulties if the new harvest comes during the wet season without provision having been made for mechanical drying of the crop to replace the traditional sun drying. In addition, there may be resistance if the new harvest pattern conflicts with religious or traditional holidays which have grown up around the customary agricultural cycles.
Sixth, failure to make significant institutional reforms may well be a handicap. There is evidence in several Latin American countries that a failure to make needed changes in policies now detrimental to agriculture, or a reluctance to effectuate the institutional reforms required to give real economic incentives to small farmers and tenants, has been primarily responsible for the very slow spread of Mexico's success with new varieties of wheat and corn to its neighbors to the south.
CONCLUSION
From all this one may deduce that the "first" or "early"adopters of the new technology will be in regions which are already more advanced, literate, responsive and progressive and
which have better soil, better water management, closer accessto roads and markets—in sum, the wealthier, more modern farmers. For them, it is easier to adopt the new higher-yield varieties since the financial risk is less and they already have better managerial skills. When they do adopt them, the doubling and trebling of yields mean a corresponding increase in their incomes. One indication of this is the large number of new private farm-management consultant firms in the Philippines which are advising large landlords on the use of the new seed varieties and making handsome profits out of their share of the increased output.
As a result of different rates in the diffusion of the new technology, the richer farmers will become richer. In fact, it may be possible that the more progressive farmers will capture food markets previously served by the smaller semi-subsistence producer. In China, only 20 percent of the total area planted to wheat in 1967-68 consisted of the new dwarf wheats, but they contributed 34 percent of the total production. Such a development could well lead to a net reduction in the income of the smaller, poorer and less venturesome farmers. This raises massive problems of welfare and equity. If only a small fraction of the rural population moves into the modern century while the bulk remains behind, or perhaps even goes backward, the situation will be highly explosive.
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