| 该文研究的重要目标是商量汇率变更对中韩两国双边商业的作用。固然国民币汇率轨制在很长一段时光都是紧盯美元的，韩语论文范文，但它对韩元一向是动摇的，这就为我们供给了测试汇率轨制的作用天然试验机遇。本文剖析的是国民币和韩元之间的汇率能否对两国的双边商业有严重的作用和这类作用的水平。今朝中国事韩国最年夜的商业同伴，韩国事中国的第三年夜商业同伴。中韩两国日趋增加的进出口额也带动了两国的经济增加。跟着两国商业额的赓续扩展，两国商业依附关系日趋加强。为了评价国民币汇率贬值能够对中韩商业形成的作用，本文应用不完整传递模子对两国从2000年第一季度到2009年第三季度中这一段时代的每一个季度的公民临盆总值及花费者价钱指数的数据停止回归剖析，研究成果注解现实汇率升值变更对韩中两国之间的商业量有正的作用，韩语毕业论文，但作用不年夜。两国经济成长程度，两国国际价钱程度是其主要的作用身分。 Abstract: The important objective of this paper is to discuss the impact of exchange rate changes on the bilateral trade between China and Korea. Although the national currency exchange rate system in a long period of time are pegged to the dollar, but it has always been shaken to the Korean won, which provides us with a test of the impact of exchange rate system of natural test opportunities. This paper analyzes whether the exchange rate between the national currency and the Korean won has a serious impact on the bilateral trade between the two countries and the level of this kind of influence. At present, China is the biggest business partner of South Korea, South Korea, China's third largest business partner. China and South Korea's increasing import and export volume has also led to the economic growth of the two countries. With the volume of bilateral business expands ceaselessly, bilateral trade dependency is gradually strengthened. For evaluation of the RMB exchange rate devaluation effects to the formation of the trade between China and South Korea, this paper uses the incomplete transfer model of two countries from the first quarter of 2000 to in the third quarter of 2009, the times of each quarter citizen's total output value and cost price index data stop regression analysis, the research has annotated the real exchange rate appreciation changes have positive impact on the trade volume between China and South Korea, but the effect is not big. The degree of economic growth between the two countries, the international price of the two countries is the main impact factor. 目录: 摘要 4-5 ABSTRACT 5 1 绪论 9-11 1.1 探讨背景和意义 9 1.2 探讨内容和措施 9-10 1.2.1 探讨思路 9-10 1.2.2 探讨措施 10 1.3 可能的创新之处 10-11 2 汇率变动对贸易作用的理论综述 11-20 2.1 弹性略论理论 11-13 2.1.1 马歇尔—勒纳条件 11-12 2.1.2 J 曲线理论 12-13 2.2 货币-吸收略论理论 13-15 2.2.1 吸收略论理论 13-14 2.2.2 货币略论理论 14-15 2.3 汇率不完全传递理论 15-17 2.4 汇率变动对贸易收支作用的实证探讨 17-18 2.5 本章小结 18-20 3 中韩汇率制度及贸易近况 20-29 3.1 中韩汇率制度及演变 20-23 3.1.1 中国汇率制度演变 20-21 3.1.2 韩国汇率制度演变 21-22 3.1.3 中韩双边汇率变动略论 22-23 3.2 中韩贸易发展状况及问题 23-29 3.2.1 中韩贸易发展状况 23-25 3.2.2 中韩贸易逆差原因略论 25-29 4 汇率变动对中韩贸易收支作用的实证略论 29-36 4.1 模型的选择 29 4.2 数据的选择和处理 29-30 4.2.1 消费者物价指数(CPI) 29-30 4.2.2 实际有效汇率(REER) 30 4.2.3 中韩进出口额 30 4.3 探讨措施 30-31 4.4 实证结果及略论 31-36 4.4.1 数据平稳性略论 31 4.4.2 Johansen 协整检验 31-34 4.4.3 脉冲函数 34-36 5 结论与政策建议 36-42 5.1 结论 36-38 5.2 政策建议 38-42 参考文献 42-45 附录 45-47 致谢 47-48 |
