| 中韩两国自1992年建交以来,双边商业成长敏捷,韩国已成为中国第四年夜出口国和第二年夜出口起源国。作为中韩双边进、出口商业的标价与结算泉币,美元自2001年以来对世界重要泉币连续升值。本文分离采取统计剖析与计量剖析的办法考核了2001年开端的美元弱势调剂对中韩双边产物商业的作用,详细以下：起首,经由过程显性比拟优势指数与静态、静态家当内商业指数的盘算测度了1994年以来中韩两国按要素投入比例划分的各类双边商业产物的显性比拟优势及家当内商业更改情形,并进一步对SITC5分位产物停止了分类考核,发明：(1)中韩两国比拟优势较强的家当分离是休息密集型家当和高等技巧密集型家当,两国在高等技巧密集型制制品上的比拟优势都在赓续上升；(2)两国在低级产物和休息密集型产物上的家当内商业水平较高,在高新技巧家当上则更多的表示为家当间商业；(3)各类产物在年夜部门年份中的边沿商业都表示为家当内商业。第二,运用2002年-2011年的年度数据,分离采取面板校订尺度误与两步法体系狭义矩估量对进、出口模子停止估量。成果注解：(1)美元对国民币现实升值,中国从韩现实出口降低；美元对韩元现实升值,中国对韩现实出口降低；(2)国民币对韩元现实贬值,中国对韩现实进、出口均降低,降低幅度小于美元现实汇率一致变更惹起的更改；(3)高等技巧密集型制制品商业与中、初级技巧密集型制制品商业比拟能更好地抵抗包含汇率身分在内的内部冲击。第三,基于以上剖析的结论,本文以为：(1)应积极推进中韩自在商业区的树立,加速国民币或韩元结算过程；(2)应年夜力成长高等技巧密集型制制品出口家当,减小双边商业流受内部冲击而发生的动摇；(3)积极猜测能够由汇率变更等身分惹起的中韩双边进、出口变更,并做好应对办法。 Abstract: Since China and Korea established diplomatic ties in 1992, bilateral trade has grown quickly, and South Korea has become the fourth largest exporter and the second largest exporter in China. As China and South Korea bilateral import and export business price and settlement currency, the dollar since 2001, the world's major currencies for the appreciation of the currency. This paper adopts statistical analysis and measurement of separation and analysis method of assessment of the beginning of 2001 the weakness in the dollar swap effect on bilateral commercial products with the following: first, through the calculation process of measure index of business advantage index and dominant compared to static, static in the house since 1994 of China and South Korea as dominant factor input proportion of bilateral commercial products the comparative advantage and belongings in the business change, and further to SITC5 a product of a classification assessment, the invention: (1) compared to China and South Korea have strong separation advantage is labor-intensive and have higher skill intensive industry, both in the higher skill intensive products for comparative advantage are rising; (2) the two countries in the lower level of commercial property products and labor-intensive products in the high, said in a new and high technology is more worldly For the family business; (3) in the Department in the years all kinds of products are expressed as a commercial edge in commercial property. Second, the application of the annual data from 2002 to 2011, separation panel to revise the standard error and narrow two step system moment estimate of import and export model to carry on the estimate. Results notes: (1) $of the reality of the national currency appreciation, China from Han real exports decreased; the appreciation of the dollar against the South Korean won reality, China to South Korea real exports decreased; (2) of reality won the national currency depreciation, Chinese of Han reality into, exports decreased, reduce amplitude less than dollar real exchange rate consistent changes cause changes; (3) higher skill intensive type of products business with, primary skills intensive type of products business compared to better withstand contains internal shocks in the identity of the exchange rate,. Third, based on the conclusion of the above analysis, this thought: (1) should actively promote the Sino Korea Free Trade Area of the set to accelerate national currency or won settlement process; (2) should be on the eve of the force growth higher skill intensive products export belongings, reduce the bilateral trade flow by the internal shock shake; (3) to try to guess to by the exchange rate change copious causes bilateral import and export change, and prepared to deal with measures. 目录: 摘要 7-8 ABSTRACT 8 第1章 引言 9-18 1.1 选题的背景和意义 9-11 1.2 汇率变动对中韩双边贸易的作用：文献综述 11-15 1.2.1 对于汇率变动对双边贸易的作用探讨 12-14 1.2.2 对于汇率变动对中韩双边贸易的作用探讨 14-15 1.2.3 文献评述 15 1.3 探讨措施与文章结构安排 15-16 1.4 可能的创新与不足 16-18 第2章 美元弱势调整下中韩双边贸易：比较略论 18-36 2.1 中韩分部门产品双边贸易演进 18-21 2.1.1 相关界定 18-19 2.1.2 中韩双边贸易的结构变迁 19-21 2.2 中韩双边贸易显性比较优势变动比较略论 21-28 2.2.1 略论措施及数据来源 21-22 2.2.2 中国对韩国出口显性比较优势变迁：纵向比较略论 22-25 2.2.3 韩国对中国出口显性比较优势变迁：纵向比较略论 25-27 2.2.4 中韩出口显性比较优势变迁：横向比较略论 27-28 2.3 中国对韩静态产业内贸易：纵向比较略论 28-31 2.3.1 略论措施 28-29 2.3.2 中韩静态产业内贸易情况变迁：按要素投入分类的产品层面 29-30 2.3.3 中韩静态产业内贸易情况比较：SITC5分位层面 30-31 2.4 中国对韩动态产业内贸易：纵向比较略论 31-34 2.4.1 略论措施 31-32 2.4.2 中韩动态产业内贸易情况变迁：按要素投入分类的产品层面 32-34 2.4.3 中韩动态产业内贸易情况比较：SITC5分位层面 34 2.5 本章小结 34-36 第3章 美元弱势调整对中韩双边产品贸易的作用：PCSE略论 36-46 3.1 变量选取与模型构建 36-37 3.2 数据来源及处理 37-38 3.3 经验结果略论 38-46 3.3.1 相关检验 38-40 3.3.2 PCSE回归结果及略论 40-46 第4章 美元弱势调整对中韩双边产品贸易的作用：系统GMM略论 46-56 4.1 内生性问题与系统GMM估计措施 46-47 4.2 系统GMM回归结果及略论 47-54 4.3 实证结果原因略论 54-56 4.3.1 人民币对韩元实际汇率、人民币对美元实际汇率与中国对韩实际进、出口的关系 54-55 4.3.2 进、出口汇率弹性的产品异同 55-56 第5章 结论及政策建议 56-58 5.1 主要结论 56-57 5.2 政策建议 57-58 注释 58-59 附录 59-75 参考文献 75-78 致谢 78-79 |
