| 俄罗斯、日本、韩国同是中国西南领国，但是，与中国的商业成长却有着异常分歧的状态。分歧的经济配景，汗青配景，文明配景，使得中国与这三个国度的经济来往也阅历了分歧的汗青阶段。本文的目标是采取定性与定量剖析相联合的剖析办法，剖析家当内商业指数。思绪是对作用中国与三国单个家当内商业指数、综合家当内商业指数及修改后的家当内商业指数停止盘算和比拟，然后参加其它微观变量，经由过程相干系数及多元线性方程回归剖析，得出这些身分的作用水平及偏向，最初得出响应的剖析结论。家当内商业是两个国度或地域对统一个家当内的产物同时停止出口和出口的商业运动。单个家当内商业指数可以用来权衡这两个国度此行业的家当内商业水平；综合家当内商业指数则可以权衡两个国度的综合家当内商业水平。然则家当内商业指数的数值其实不能相对地证实两个国度之间的商业活泼水平，只能在数值上反响出两国的同家当的进出口差距。依据GL指数的修改公式从新盘算出中俄、中日、中韩的家当内商业修改指数和原综合指数比拟，经济周期和商业不屈衡对家当内商业指数的目标作用异常年夜，个中韩国的指数作用最年夜。所以修改后的指数显示，中俄、中日、中韩的商业指数是从低到高分列的，均匀数分离为0.3263、0.6055、0.8116。三国的GDP增加率、通货收缩率、汇率更改率等，与修改的家当内商业指数一路都是作为作用两个商业的身分。所以对这些变量之间的相干系数研究后，我们总结出这些变量之间的相干性。起首，家当内商业指数对出口有反感化力。日本、韩国GDP的增加对中日与中韩的出口商业作用不年夜，但俄罗斯的GDP增加对中俄的出口商业却作用异常年夜。俄罗斯、日本、韩国的通货收缩率和家当内商业指数相干性年夜，但是，韩语论文范文，对出口作用水平却不年夜。汇率更改率与家当内商业指数有关，但对中日、中韩的出口作用幅度很年夜。可见，中国对这三个国度的出口推进身分其实不仅仅为经济身分，出口增长的面前必定许多没法用数理计量的身分。好比FDI等直接招致的进出口需求，资本缺乏惹起的国际需求、社会文明身分惹起的商品进出口需求等。将三国的GDP增加率、通货收缩率、汇率更改率等，与修改的家当内商业指数一路作为变量与中国对这三国的出口增加率停止回归剖析，我们获得了三国的出口模子。联合相干系数的剖析成果，我们获得了一些结论。我们发明，中日与中韩的商业有异常多的类似的地方。家当内商业的推进了进出口产物趋同，使得出口国的产物需求降低。一旦产物从各自的优势变更为同质产物，在国度间流畅的动力就会由于昂贵的流畅本钱而降低，终究克制了进出口商业。俄罗斯与中国的商业存在年夜幅度的动摇，国度的政策常常对国度经济与商业情形有极年夜的作用。然则在国民币贬值的情形下，俄罗斯市场比拟日韩的市场的外汇压力更小。日本与韩国市场类似，所以积极开辟俄罗斯市场，有益于疏散投资风险，而且在国民币赓续贬值的情形下，在俄罗斯市场的开辟中，仍能包管优越的势头，不受国民币贬值的压力。另外，韩语论文范文，赓续更新产物，晋升品牌抽象，完成差别化运营，如许才不会由于深刻的家当内商业，而掉去出口的增加势头。中国对日本和韩国的出口受汇率作用很年夜，所以，在国际商业中巧用国际金融对象，以减缓国民币贬值压力带来的压力。用计量经济学的研究办法来研究经济成绩具稀有理上直不雅的后果。今朝学术界对作用中俄、中日、中韩的商业身分的研究重要集中在两国之间商业的模子和身分的拔取与剖析，有关三国的模子比拟偏向研究不多。所以，笔者采取计量经济学的研究办法，对中俄、中日、中韩出口商业作用身分的计量模子停止比拟，为中俄、中日、中韩出口商业的作用身分模子的研究供给一个新的视角。 Abstract: Russia, Japan, South Korea and China in the southwest, but with China's business growth has a state of abnormal differences. Differences of economic background, historical background, cultural background, so that China and the three countries of the economic relations between the two countries have also experienced differences in the historical stage. The goal of this paper is to analyze the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, analysis of the index of business in the house. Thoughts is to affect China and the three individual possessions in the commercial index, comprehensive belongings business index and modified possessions in the commercial index stop calculation and comparison, and then in other microscopic variables. Through the process of coherent coefficient and multiple linear regression equation of regression analysis, obtains the effect degree of these factors and bias, initially concluded that the response analysis of the conclusions. He is two in the business of a country or region within the product at the same time to stop the export of industrial and export business. Individual possessions in the commercial index can be used to weigh the two countries the industry's belongings in the commercial level; comprehensive possessions in the commercial index can weigh the two countries comprehensive possessions in the commercial level. However possessions in the commercial index value cannot really relatively confirmed between the two countries commercial lively level, only on the numerical response of the two countries with the belongings of the gap between import and export. On the basis of the modified formula of GL index from the new calculated between China and Russia, Japan, China and South Korea's belongings business modified index and comprehensive index compared, economic cycle and business don't bend the balance of worldly business index with the goal of the eve of the anomaly, medium South Korea's index of the most Nianye. Therefore, the revised index shows that China and Russia, China and Japan, China and South Korea's business index is from low to high, the average number of 0.3263, 0.6055, 0.8116. Country GDP increase rate, inflation rate, exchange rate change rate etc., and modify the belongings in the commercial index all the way as the identity of the effect of two commercial. So after studying the correlation coefficient between these variables, we summarize the coherence between these variables. First of all, the index of business within the force of offensive possessions for export. Japan, South Korea's GDP increase in China and South Korea's export business impact is not great, but the increase in Russia's GDP exports to China and Russia are affected by the great business. In Russia, Japan, South Korea and the rate of inflation and worldly business index coherence Nianye, however, to influence the export level is not big. The rate of exchange rate changes associated with the index of business property, but the export rate of different in Japan, China and South Korea is very big. Visible, China's export promotion of the three countries in fact, not only for economic factors, export growth in front of a number of factors that can not be used as a mathematical measure. Like FDI and other direct import and export needs, the lack of capital caused by the international demand, social and cultural factors such as the cause of the import and export of goods needs. Will country GDP increase rate, inflation rate, exchange rate change rate etc., and modify the belongings in the commercial index as variables and Chinese exports to the three countries increased rates of discontinuation of regression analysis, we obtain the export model of the Three Kingdoms. We have obtained some conclusions by analyzing the results of the joint correlation coefficient. We find that there are many similar places in China and South Korea's business. In the commercial property convergence of import and export products, the export country product demand reduction. Once the product from their own advantages to change the same product, in the country's smooth power will be due to the high cost of fluid and reduce the cost, after all, to control the import and export business. Russia and China's commercial presence of a significant shake, the country's policies often have a great impact on the country's economic and business conditions. But in the case of the devaluation of the national currency, the Russian market compared to Japan and South Korea's foreign exchange market pressure is smaller. Similar to Japan and South Korea market, so actively open up the Russian market, beneficial to the evacuation of the investment risk, and in the case of devaluation of the national currency ceaselessly, in the opening of the Russian market can still assure favorable momentum, pressure is not affected by the devaluation of the RMB. Also continuously updated product, promotion brand image, complete the differentiated operation, such ability won't due to deep worldly business, and off to export growth. China's exports to Japan and South Korea are affected by the exchange rate is very large, so in the international business with international financial objects, to slow down the pressure of the devaluation of the national currency. Research methods of econometrics to study the consequences of the economic performance with dilute rational. At present, the academic influence of China and Russia, China and Japan, China and South Korea's commercial identity of the study is important to focus on the business model and identity of the two countries select and analysis, the three models are not much more than the mold. So I take econometric research methods, to Russia, Japan, China and South Korea export trade influence factor of the econometric models to carry on the comparison, Russia, Japan, China and South Korea export business influencing factor model of the study provides a new perspective. 目录: |
