Ivan Eland is director of defense policy studies at the Cato Institute and authorof Putting Defense Back into U.S.Defense Policy ：Rethinking U.S.Security in the PostCold War World. Published by the Cato Institute Policy Analysis is a regular series evaluating government policies and offeringproposals fro reform. Executive Summary The ongoing modernization of the Chinese military poses less of a threat tothe United States than recent studies by the Pentagon and a congressionally mandatedcommission have posited.Both studies exaggerate the strength of Chinas militaryby focusing on the modest improvements of specific sectors rather than the still-antiquatedoverall state of Chinese forces.The state of the Chinese military and its mod-ernization must also be put in the context of U.S.interests in East Asia and comparedwith the state and modernization of the U.S.military and other militaries in EastAsia，especially the Taiwanese military.Viewed in that context，Chinas militarymodernization does not look especially threatening. Although not officially calling its policy in East Asia containment ，the UnitedStates has ringed China with formal and informal alliances and a forward militarypresence.With such an extended defense perimeter ，法语论文，the United States considersas a threat to its interests any natural attempt by Chinaa rising power with a growingeconomyto gain more control of its external environment by increasing defense spending.If U.S.policymakers would take a more restrained view of Americas vital interestsin the region ，the measured Chinese military buildup would not appear so threatening.Conversely，U.S.policy may appear threatening to China.Even the Pentagon admitsthat China accelerated hikes in defense spending after the United States attackedYugoslavia over the Kosovo issue in 1999. The United States still spends about 10times what China does on national defense$400bil-lion versus roughly $40billion per yearand is modernizing its forces muchfaster.In addition ，much of the increase in Chinas official defense spending issoaked up by expenses not related to acquiring new weapons.Thus，Chinas spendingon new armaments is equivalent to that of a nation that spends only $10billionto $20billion per year on defense.In contrast ，the United States spends wellover $100billion per year to acquire new weapons. Even without U.S.assistance，Taiwans mod-ern military could probably dissuadeChina from attacking.Taiwan does not have to be able to win a conflict ；it needsonly to make the costs of any attack unacceptable to China.The informal U.S.securityguarantee is unneeded. Introduction Both the Pentagon and a congressionally mandated commission recently issuedstud-ies on the Chinese military that overstated the threat to the United Statesposed by that force.The pessimism of both studies was understandable. The Department of Defenses studytheAnnual Report on the Military Power of thePeoples Republic of China1was issued by a federal bureaucracy that has an inherentconflict of interest in developing assessments of foreign military threats.Becausethe department that is creating the threat assessments is the same one that is lobbyingCongress for money for weapons，personnel ，fuel ，and training to combat threats，its threat projections tend to be inflated.Because China ，with an economy thatis seemingly growing rapidly，is the ris-ing great power on the horizon that shouldshape the future posture of American con-ventional forces（the brushfire wars neededto combat terrorism are likely to require only limited forces ），the threat fromChinas armed forces is critical for bringing addition-al money into the Pentagon.The U.S.-China Security Review Commissions workThe National Security Implicationsof the Economic Relationship between the United States and Chinadrew at least partiallyon the Pentagons effort and was written by anti-China hawks and those with a desireto restrict commerce with China.2 In contrast ，this paper attempts to place the modernizing Chinese militaryin the con-text of a more balanced and limited view of U.S.strategic interestsin East Asia.In addi-tion ，when the distorting perspectives of both studiesare removedthat is，their focus on recent improvements in Chinese military capabilitiesrather than on the overall state of the Chinese militarythe threat from the Chinesearmed forces is shown to be modest.The bone-crushing dominance of the U.S.mil-itary remains intact.In fact ，the Chinese mili-tary does not look all that impressivewhen compared even to the Taiwanese armed forces. Putting the Modernizing Chinese Military in Context Frequently，improvements in the Chinese military are reported in the worldpress with-out any attention to context.That is ，those flows are highlightedbut the stockthe overall state of the Chinese militaryis ignored.The state of theChinese military and how rapidly it is likely to improve will be examined in thesecond half of this paper.But first，additional context is needed.Pockets ofthe Chinese military are now modernizing more rapidly than in the past，but comparedto what ？Both the moderniza-tion and the actual state of the Chinese mili-tarymust be compared with those of the U.S.military and other militaries in the EastAsian region（especially Taiwans armed forces ）。In addition，the geopoliticaland strategic environment in which Chinese mil-itary modernization is occurringneeds to be examined.Western students of the Chinese military often speak abstractlyabout when growing Chinese military power will adverse-ly affect U.S.interests.It is very important to concretely define such interests because the wider the definition，the more likely even small increments of additional Chinese mili-tary power willthreaten them. |
