| 摘要:（摘要内容经过系统自动伪原创处理以避免复制，下载原文正常，内容请直接查看目录。） 在经济全球化的配景下，中俄计谋协作同伴关系赓续深化，获得了长足停顿，配合成长与配合繁华业已成为两国配合关怀的主题。中俄都是最近几年经济成长势头微弱的国度，从经济构造上看，两国的互补性很强，互利经贸协作的空间很年夜。中俄林业协作恰是在此配景下蓬勃成长，因为地舆地位、天然资本、人力资本、文明传承、资金技巧等天赋的差别，使得发生了对两边都有益的林产物互惠商业。21世纪是中俄林业协作的新时代，国际国际情势也悄然产生着深入变更，跟着俄罗斯经济苏醒，俄当局开端看重林业成长，赓续出台新的林业政策，包含赓续进步未加工木材的出口关税。现阶段的中国林业家当对俄罗斯木材资本的依附性很年夜，俄罗斯政策的变更对我们的作用是不言而喻的。本文以关税政策为切入点，商量俄罗斯政策变更对中俄林产物商业及中国林业家当平安的作用，对我们掌握将来两国的协作偏向和保证中国木材供给平安具有非常主要的意义。经由过程剖析中俄两国林产物临盆及商业等方面的现状，商量了两国林产物商业的演化进程和动摇状况。经由过程对中俄林产物比拟优势指数、互补性指数的测算，指出中国具有比拟优势的产物以休息密集型产物为主，俄罗斯具有比拟优势的产物以资本密集型产物为主，且两国具有比拟优势产物的互补性很强，是以两边都能在国际商业中获利。随后引入常常市场份额模子，剖析了俄罗斯对中国原木、锯材的出口量赓续增加的缘由，研究注解恰是因为中国林产物市场的扩展和俄罗斯锯材出口竞争力赓续加强促使了俄罗斯对中国原木及锯材出口量的年夜幅上升。本文针对俄罗斯原木出口关税政策的屡次变革，创立了关税博弈模子，试图用汗青的、静态的眼力去评述其原木出口关税政策的演化进程，提醒俄罗斯关税政策调剂面前的深入配景，俄语论文题目，并对将来能够的走向做出断定。经由过程剖析俄芬关税博弈的进程和终局，给中国供给了在处置对外商业时可以参照的经历和处理争真个手腕和门路，对中俄组成互相依附的格式，具有非常主要的实际意义。本文经由过程树立俄罗斯原木完税后的出口价钱模子，对含税的价钱梯度状况停止盘算，成果注解原木完税后的出口价钱取决于关税税率、汇率和出口商品价钱的综合变更。当汇率、平衡价钱不变时，关税的下跌会带来本钱的上升，并进而进步商品的价钱。经由过程罗列2017年的数据和树立中国原木出口量、出口单价与俄罗斯原木出口关税变更之间的一元线性回归，俄语论文范文，验证了俄罗斯原木出口关税的高下动摇形成商品价钱的下跌，并进而作用中俄林产物商业的构造。对俄罗斯原木出口关税的作用剖析进一步扩大到中国林业家当平安成绩，从微观角度考核了其政策变更对中国林业家当及其运转发生的感化机制。经由过程树立中国林业家当平安模子，将家当对俄依存度作为主要目标，运用条理剖析法对作用身分停止打分，得出以下结论中国林业家当面对的风险较年夜，特殊是对俄罗斯原木的依附使得对其政策的敏理性很强，这将对将来中国原木出口的趋向带来不肯定性，对林业家当成长带来晦气作用。本文最初针对俄罗斯原木出口关税政策的变更，提出了相干应对战略及政策建议。提出应该树立家当平安预警机制，中国木材贮备机制，保证国度木材平安计谋；以当局为主导，为公司境外成长供给政策保证；加速国际人工林培养，进步国际木材保证才能；实行“走出去”计谋，搀扶公司境外成长。本文的立异点是从实际和实证方面商量了俄罗斯关税变更对中俄林产物商业及中国林业家当平安的作用。应用常常市场份额模子，剖析了中俄木材商业增加的缘由；应用抵触模子对俄罗斯原木出口关税政策停止了政策模仿，得出了关税变更的趋向，为中国林业家当下一步应对供给了根据；树立了基于俄罗斯关税政策调剂下的中国林业家当平安模子，对作用家当平安的各项身分停止了述评，得出了家当不平安的结论。将来将对诸如关税效应的时滞性，关税对各类公司的作用作进一步的深刻研究。 Abstract: Under the background of economic globalization, Sino Russian strategic partnership continuously deepening, achieved great progress, with growth and prosperity has already become the theme of the two countries with care. China and Russia are the weak economic growth momentum in recent years, from the economic structure, the complementarity between the two countries is very strong, mutually beneficial economic and trade cooperation space is very big. Sino Russian forestry cooperation is just in this prosperous growth, because of the geographical position, natural capital, human capital, cultural heritage, capital skills, such as the difference between the two sides are beneficial to the benefit of the forest products business. The 21st century is a new era of Sino Russian cooperation in forestry, international and domestic situation is also quietly to produce a thorough change, along with the recovery of the Russian economy, Russian authorities started to value growth of forestry, continuously introduced new forestry policies, contains the ceaseless progress of unprocessed timber export tariffs. At this stage, China's forestry possessions dependency on Russian timber capital sex is very big, the Russian policy changes impact on our is self-evident. This paper on tariff policy as the breakthrough point, discuss Russia policy changes impact on the Sino Russian forest products trade and China forestry belongings safe for us to master the future cooperation between the two countries bias, and ensure the supply of wood in China Ping An has a very important significance. Through the analysis of the status of Sino Russian bilateral forest products production and business process, to discuss the Russian forest products trade evolution process and shake. Through the process of the Sino Russian forest products comparative advantage index, the complementary index of the calculation, pointed out that China has the advantage of the product to rest intensive products, Russia has a comparative advantage in capital intensive products, and the two countries have a strong complementary products, is to both sides in the international business profits. Subsequently introduced often market share model, analyzed the Russia China logs, sawn timber exports continuously increase the reason, research notes is precisely because of the expansion of China's forest products market and the Russian timber export competitiveness continuously strengthen prompted Russia to China logs and saw timber export quantity of the eve of the amplitude increased. The in the light of the Russian log export tariff policy repeatedly change, founded the tariff game model, with history, static eyesight to review the log export tariff policy evolution process of trying to remind before the Russian tariff policy to adjust the deep background, and to the trend in the future can be enough to make the decisions. Through the analysis of the process and the final Russo Finnish tariff game, to the Chinese supply the can be referred to in dealing with foreign trade experience and handling contention really a wrist and opportunities, on Sino Russian composition dependent each other format, has very important practical significance. This paper through the process of establishing Russian log after clearance of export price model, containing the tax situation of the price gradient stop calculation and results comment log in after tax export price will be determined in tariff, exchange rate and export commodity price changes. When the exchange rate, the balance of the price unchanged, the decline in tariffs will bring the rise of capital, and thus improve the price of goods. Through the process of listing in 2017 data and establish China's timber exports, the export unit price with the Russian log export tariffs change between a Yuan linear regression and verified the superiority of the Russian log export tariffs fluctuations caused by falling commodity prices, and thus affect the structure of Sino Russian forest products trade. On the influence of the Russian log export tariffs analysis further expanded to China forestry belongings safety problems, from the micro perspective assessment the policy change occurs to the belongings of forestry in China and its operation mechanism of action. Through the process of establishing China forestry belongings security model, belongings to Russia dependency degree as the main target, the application of structured analysis method of influence factors of stop scoring. That is the eve of the risks facing the following conclusions China forestry possessions, especially of the Russian log dependence makes the policy sensitivity is very strong, which will in the future trend of China's export of logs brings uncertainty, the forestry possessions growth brings adverse effect. According to the change of the Russian log export tariff policy, this paper puts forward the relevant strategy and policy recommendations. Proposed should set up the belongings safety early warning mechanism, China timber reserve mechanism to ensure national timber security strategy; to authorities as the leading factor, for overseas enterprises supply growth policies to ensure; accelerate the cultivation of the plantation, progress international wood can guarantee; implementation of "going out" counsel, helped foreign enterprises growth. The innovation points of this thesis is from the theoretical and empirical aspects to discuss the Russian tariff changes impact on the Sino Russian forest products trade and China forestry possessions of peace. Use often market share model, analyzes the reason of timber trade between China and Russia increased; the use of conflict mold of Russian log export tariff policy to stop the policy imitation, that tariffs change trend, China forestry immediate family a step should provide a basis for; set up on the basis of the Russian tariff policy to adjust China's forestry belongings security model, safe for the influence of belongings of the status review, we come to the conclusion that the belongings is safe. In the future, such as the time lag of the effect of the tariff, the influence of the tariff on all kinds of enterprises is deeply studied. 目录: |
