后冷战时期俄罗斯的中东政策与个案略论[俄语论文]

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俄罗斯联邦立国20年来,跟着交际政策的变更,俄罗斯中东政策也阅历了疏忽中东、重返中东和看重中东的成长过程,中东政策已成为将中兴年夜国位置作为目的的对外政策的主要构成部门,中东成为俄罗斯年夜国中兴的支点。因为中东的主要计谋位置,中东势必是年夜国竞逐的热门地域,俄罗斯也将是作用中东格式变更的一支重要力气,这不克不及不惹起正在突起而又高度依附中东动力的中国对俄罗斯将来中东政策变更的高度存眷,是以,追随俄罗斯中东政策成长演化的轨迹,研讨俄罗斯中东政策变更的动因、本质、特色及其纪律,迷信地猜测俄罗斯中东政策的成长趋向,以资作为中国成长与俄罗斯和中东国度友爱协作关系的参考和自创,具有必定的汗青和实际意义。本文依照汗青事宜的成长演化次序,由远及近,由普通到个体,以时光为经线,以事宜为纬线,重视汗青与实际、实际与理论相联合,在时光规模上以1991岁尾俄罗斯联邦立国到2017岁尾止,在地区规模上以通用的“十八国说”为基本,把具有相似国情、邻近区域的伊斯兰国度视为一个全体,力图对俄罗斯中东政策做一周全的汗青考核并得出明白的结论。第一部门以地缘政治的视角剖析了中东在全球计谋和俄罗斯对外计谋中的计谋位置,指出中东之于俄罗斯的主要表示于中东的计谋位置、中东石油资本开辟范围、发卖价钱对俄罗斯外汇支出之作用、俄罗斯在中东的地缘政治和计谋平安好处、俄罗斯在中东的经贸好处。第二部门则剖析了俄罗斯继续的苏联中东政策遗产及作用。提出俄罗斯继续的苏联的中东遗产其实不丰富,挑衅与机会并存。第三部门追随了俄罗斯联邦立国20年间中东政策演变的轨迹。总结得出俄罗斯中东政策演化出现出叶利钦时代的先疏忽后重返、普京时代的强力参与和梅德韦杰夫时代的坚持积极朝上进步但力有不逮的曲线,与俄罗斯交际政策变更成正相干性。第四部门重点剖析俄罗斯与伊拉克关系和俄罗斯与伊朗关系两个案例。总结得出俄罗斯与伊拉克关系是1991-2003年间俄罗斯中东政策的活标本,俄罗斯与伊朗关系是磨练俄罗斯中东政策有用性的试金石。第五部门则研讨了俄罗斯中东政策的特色,以为俄罗斯中东政策的特色是目的的务虚性、结构的平衡性、立场的自力性、行为的自动性、战略的灵巧性和敌手的唯一性。第六部门则对俄罗斯中东政策将来趋向予以瞻望,以为将来俄罗斯中东政策将之外交办事于外交和国度好处至上为价值取向,会更强调目的的务虚性、战略的灵巧性、手腕的多样性、行为的自动性和对象的普遍性。第七部门是本文的结论。本文得出以下结论:第一,后暗斗时代俄罗斯中东政策演进的阶段性与俄罗斯交际政策演进的阶段性具有正相干性,完整同步。第二,俄罗斯中东政策变更的基本动因在于俄罗斯在中东的好处须要。第三,俄罗斯中东政策的特色是目的的务虚性、结构的平衡性、立场的自力性、行为的自动性、战略的灵巧性和敌手的唯一性。第四,俄罗斯中东政策的详细目的弃取受制于国际各类政治思潮和好处团体的作用。第五,将来俄罗斯中东政策走向的断定是,将来俄罗斯中东政策将之外交办事于外交和国度好处至上为价值取向,会更强调目的的务虚性、战略的灵巧性、手腕的多样性、行为的自动性和对象的普遍性。

Abstract:

Russian Federation in 20 years to, along with the change of communication policy, Russia's policy in the Middle East also experience the negligence of the Middle East, returned to the Middle East and the value of the growth process in the Middle East, Middle East policy has become ZTE big country position as the purpose of the foreign policy is the main components of the Department, the Middle East has become the fulcrum of Russia big country, ZTE's. Because of the Middle East, the major strategic position and the Middle East is bound to be big country to compete for the popular area, Russia will also be the effect of change of format in the Middle East a important strength, this means than does not cause is processes and highly dependent power in the Middle East of China to Russia in the future Middle East policy changes in a high degree of concern about, is to follow the Russian Middle East policy evolution trajectory of change of Russia's Middle East policy motivation, essence, characteristics and discipline, superstition to guess the growth of Russia's Middle East policy trend, to capital as China's growth and Russia and the Middle East countries friendly and cooperative relations between the reference and the homemade, with certain historical and practical significance. The according to the growth of the historical issues evolution order, by far and near from the general to the individual, in time for the warp, weft on matters, pay attention to history and reality, theory and practice of combining, in the time scale to the end of 1991 Russia nation to the end of 2017, on a regional scale to general "Eighteen nation" as the basic, with similar conditions and the neighboring region of an Islamic state regarded as a whole, in a bid to of Russia's Middle East policy to do a comprehensive historical appraisal and draw a clear conclusion. First department to Geopolitical Perspective Analysis of the Middle East in the global strategy and Russia's foreign strategy in the strategic position of, pointed out that the Middle East in Russia mainly expresses in the strategic position in the Middle East, the oil capital of the Middle East open range, sale price impact on the shadow of the Russian Foreign exchange expenditures, Russia in the middle of the geopolitical and strategic security interests, Russia in the Middle East Economic and trade benefits. The second part analyzes the Russian Soviet policy in the Middle East to heritage and influence. The Soviet Russia continues to the Middle East heritage is not rich, challenges and opportunities coexist. Third departments follow Russia country 20 years evolution of Middle East policy trajectory. Concluded that Russia's Middle East policy evolved out of the negligence of the first in the Yeltsin Era after return, Mr Putin's strong participation and Medvedev era to positive enterprising but has not caught curve, and Russia's communication policy change is coherence. The fourth part focuses on the analysis of Russia's relations with Iraq and the relationship between Russia and Iran, two cases. It concludes that the relationship between Russia and Iraq is live specimens 1991-2003 Russia policy in the Middle East, the relationship between Russia and Iran is hone the touchstone of Russia's Middle East Policy usefulness. The fifth part discusses the characteristics of Russia's Middle East policy, thought characteristic of Russian Middle East policy is to retreat, structural balance, position independent, the behavior is automatic and strategic dexterous and the opponent's uniqueness. The sixth part is Russia's Middle East Policy in the future trend of be outlook, that in the future Russia's policy in the Middle East will be the diplomatic service in foreign and national interests first as the value orientation, more emphasis on universality to retreat, the strategy of smart, wrist diversity, behavior, automatic and object. The seventh part is the conclusion. This paper draws the following conclusions: first, the period in the post Cold War era of Russian Middle East Policy Evolution and Russian communication policy evolution stage with positive coherence, complete synchronization. Second, the basic cause of Russian Middle East policy change is good in the Middle East to russia. Third, the characteristics of Russia's Middle East policy is to retreat, structural balance, position independent, the behavior is automatic and strategic dexterous and the opponent's uniqueness. Fourth. The influence of the Russian Middle East policy with objective choice subject to international political thoughts and various benefits groups. Fifth, the future Russian policy toward the Middle East's judgment is that, the future Russian policy in the Middle East will be the diplomatic service in foreign and national interests first as the value orientation, more emphasis on universality to retreat, the strategy of smart, wrist diversity, behavior, automatic and object.

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