Although more likely than an amphibious invasion of Taiwan，a naval blockadeusing Chinese submarines and surface ships would face some of the same problemsas an amphibious flotilla.The poor air defenses on Chinese surface ships wouldrender them vulnerable to attack by superior Taiwanese air power.In addition ，Chinese naval com-mand and control is probably inadequate to manage a naval quarantine.Although China has more submarines and surface warships in its navy than does Taiwan，the Taiwanese navy has superior surveillance and anti-sub-marine and anti-surfacewarfare capabilities.Currently ，the Chinese might very well be able to disruptTaiwans commerce to a lim-ited extent with their modest mine-laying capabilityand submarine attacks （sub-marines are less susceptible than surface ves-selsto attack from the air），but even estab-lishing a partial blockade of certainports would be difficult.By 2025，Swaine and Mulvenon predict that China coulddeny the use of the sea and air out to 500nautical miles from Chinas coastlineand attempt a naval blockade within 200nautical miles of that coastline.40So evenin 2025，China might not be able to enforce a complete naval quarantine of Taiwan. Intimidation with Missile Launches or Actual Attacks In 1996China tried to intimidate Taiwan with missile tests in the Taiwan Straitduring Chinese military exercises at the time of the Taiwanese presidential elections.Those actions had the opposite effect of that intendedthe election outcome was notwhat the Chinese government had desired.Actual missile attacks on Taiwan for thepur-pose of terrorizing the Taiwanese population would probably cause an even greaterback-lash against China in Taiwan and the inter-national community and could triggerretal-iatory raids on the mainland by the superior Taiwanese air force.Neitherthe accuracy nor the numbers of Chinese missiles now permit them to have a significanteffect when used against Taiwanese military targets.As Chinese missiles becomemore numerous and accurate，such missile attacks would become more militarily consequential.But passive defense measures could reduce signif-icantly the effectiveness of Chinesemissile attacks on military targets. Rather than provide an informal security guarantee for Taiwan ，the UnitedStates should sell Taiwan the arms to defend itself.President Bush has authorizedthe sale of a greater number of weapon systems to Taiwan than President Clintonapproved.But Taiwan has been slow to come up with the money to buy many of them.Taiwan needs to do more for its own defense but will not if the United States continuesto informally guarantee Taiwans security.Implications for the United States：ChinasRelations with Other Neighbors According to Christopher A.McNally and Charles E.Morrison，authors of Asia Pacific Security Outlook 2002，China has steadily improvedrelations with countries sharing its land borders ，but the Chinese still haveissues with their maritime neighbors.In 2001the leaders of China，Russia ，Kazakhstan，Uzbekistan，Tajikistan ，and the Kyrgyz Republic created the Shanghai CooperationOrganization that was designed to increase cooperation in regional security ，economicrelations ，culture，science，education，and environmental protection.In addition， China signed the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation withRussia，which pledged，among other things ，that the two nations would not useforce in disputes and would not target mis-siles at each other.Chinas relationswith for-mer foesIndia and Vietnamhave warmed with growing economic relations andhigh-level visits.41In general ，such arrangements contribute to the securityof the regions involved.The military cooperation between China and Russia bearswatching，but it is only exacerbated by the unstated U.S.policy of containingChina with encircling alliances and a continuing forward military presence in EastAsia. According to James Holt ，an analyst for the World Policy Institute，Chinasmilitary is qualitatively inferior to that of Russia，India，Vietnam ，and Taiwanand would lose any war against any of those nations.In particular，since the 1960sIndia has more than doubled the size of its military and modernized its armed forcesto a greater extent than China.In addition ，Holt argues that for the last 30years Chinas military power has also been declining vis ——vis that of the UnitedStates，Taiwan ，Japan ，and South Korea.Holt maintains that unless China atleast doubles real military spending，its rate of weapons purchases in relationto the size of its armed forces is so low that its military will continue to declinerela-tive to those of the United States，Taiwan ，India ，Japan，and South Korea.42Thisneed is caused by the low percentage of Chinese defense expenditures that is currentlyallocat-ed to the acquisition of weapons. |
