作 者：刘倩[1] 翟崑[2] Liu Qian ＆ Zhai Kun （Institute of International Strategic Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; School of International Studies, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China） 机构地区：[1]北京大学国际战略探讨院,北京100871 [2]北京大学国际关系学院,北京100871 出 处：《东南亚探讨》2017年第4期4-11,共8页Southeast Asian Studies 摘 要：泰国的政治发展陷入一种长期的文人与军人交替执政、选举与政变循环反复的“怪圈”。他信执政以来，以王室、曼谷政商集团、新资本集团和农民为代表的生产要素所有者，由于在经济发展中的收益分配不同，产生不同的利益诉求和政策偏好，进而形成改革联盟和保守联盟两大对抗性要素联盟。双方在国家发展理念、社会运动和民主机制三个层面的升级对抗，导致泰国政治怪圈的延续。未来泰国政治的发展趋势取决于要素联盟的稳定性及由此带来的联盟格局变动。近中期来看，保守联盟仍会保持较高的合作程度，他信派只有向保守联盟妥协，才有望打破政治僵局。长期来看，产业结构的更新换代带动传统资本向新兴行业流动，泰语毕业论文，加之后普密蓬时代的王室作用力式微，泰语专业论文，将动摇保守联盟的稳定性，从而可能引发泰国政治制度的根本性变革。The political development of Thailand has manifested in a long-term cyclical pattern that civilian and military are in power alternatively, as well as election and coup are running back and forth. Since Thaksin Shina- watra took office, owing to their varying benefit from economy growth, the largest owners of production factor in Thailand, represented by the Royal Family, the Traditional Capitalist Group, the New Capitalist Group and the Peasants, were forging two confrontational alliances--the Reform Alliance and the Conservative Alliance--based on different interest orientation and policy preference. The confrontation by the two parties was escalated stepwise from the country＇s development design, social movement unto the democracy mechanism, which worsened Thailand＇s di- lemma of political cycle. The political tendency in Thailand depends on the stability of the alliances as well as the resulting change of the alliance structure. It is predicted that the Conservative Alliance will maintain close coopera- tion in the short and medium term, therefore, only Thaksin＇s compromise can break the current political deadlock. But viewing for a long term, the traditional capital＇s flowing to the emerging industry followed by the upgrading of industrial structure, plus the fading influence of the Royal family in post-Bhumibol era, will all decrease the stabili- ty of the Conservative Alliance, triggering fundamental transformation on Thailand＇s political institution. 关 键 词：政治怪圈 泰国 |
