This study aims at the difference existing in the process and outcome of oil and natural gas talks between China and Russia to discuss and research results is why oil talks can or victory to promote the completion of the "instrument Siberia - Pacific" oil pipeline, and growth of the Russian oil to China's exports, while natural gas talks but fall into stop. This paper from the three different practical perspective analysis of petroleum and natural gas in the talks, and the application example to usefulness of corroborating each kind of practical measures, three kinds of practical model using in oil and natural gas talks two case. Chose these three ways because they are more or less will produce effect to the talks. The absolute return, fixing talks agreement is the best choice and future shadow three kind of model based on set three coherence assumption, and applied to the verification of the Sino Russian oil and natural gas talks. Assumption 1: Russia and China worries and latent agreement related to the absolute return, with concern obstacle them in natural gas cooperation project rapid growth. However in the main oil talks results, due to the high rate of return, so the cooperation double stable. Hypothesis two: Russia and / or China better in natural gas replacement plan, which can hinder further cooperation. Oil talks stopped smoothly, is due to the internal value is not big. Assumption 3: Russia and China in the different level of the talks will be future changes to collaborative and solid element of discretion, that at the end of each stage of the cities have affected the talks process identity, and in the process of fixing on both sides of the agreement will also influence the magnitude of benefits. In this paper, we use two cases to study "process". Case studies as a discipline structure type to open, not only to consider to apply the actual case to stop shows the situation of the doctrine of experience into the offer and overall to confirm the situation of the actual contribution. Analysis of the narrative and the content is two the running mechanism of writing, interviews, media reports and documents on both sides have also been used to support this study. This paper argues that in regional and global power relations as big background open. Paper analyzes the dynamic situation between China and Russia, to confirm the impetus to bilateral strategy paramount the crux of the exigencies and in their respective energy security affects mutually; on the field of petroleum and natural gas cooperation talks process stop analysis tracking. Then on the analysis of the position on both sides of the in the interaction process of important challenges and opportunities and dynamic performance in its political agenda. Initially in a large amount of reality and to analyze the data basically on the Sino Russian cooperation in oil and natural gas business form (absolute returns, fixing talks agreement is a best way of choice, future under the shadow of the talks) test. Through the analysis of the invention, after the Russian fuel and power part of the growth of external and internal power supply policy according to some of the main. On the one hand, Russia has the world's largest mineral raw materials base. In the future and the future for a period of time can perhaps meet Russia's economic growth on hydrocarbons demand; on the other hand, traditional natural gas and is more value of the oilfield cut by more than half, is to transfer to the new area of investigation is very important, of course, including ocean region of Russia. However, Russia's major oil exports, the growth of high value-added exports is an important duty of the dynamic policy. Some of the important investigation to foster the refinery and liquefaction plant. An important export Russian power products tend to be Europe and the cis. The Russian energy export strategy highlights the important geographical and product diversification, in addition to high value-added power exhibits the export volume is an important goal, medium "instrument Siberia - Pacific" oil pipeline construction nil is the to the east the diversification of best performance. This class for the eastern part of the change is decided by the instrument Siberia of Russia and Far East region for the growth policy. It contains natural gas transportation and distribution systems of large-scale expansion, diversification of Eastern is a part of its international and international development policy. The Russian power growth policy is put forward according to the part of the power of a "2030 years ago Russian energy strategy" comprehensive planning and formulation of. This strategy is a country in the round part of the social and economic development, aimed at ensuring power capital is more useful to open up, so as to explore the Russian economic growth potential. This strategy means that in Russia's economic growth in the power steering sector as its economic growth in Ankang from the "power". Part of the growth of the Russian power show dexterity features: a wrist mechanism and growth; the international market and the international market to open up two; non traditional areas of oil and natural gas capital. The Arctic sea and the northern region is the focus of the strategic development, it is not only related to the new area of dynamic mining policy, and in the long run it can be related to the power of peace and sustainable development. The policy change is the bias power cuts power intensity, economic growth and progress in energy efficiency. The Russian power strategy is a comprehensive international level department strategic structure. Russia's goal of full integration into the world of power market, maintain a strong relationship with the traditional cost through the process of Russia's power to ensure that its citizens get the most economic benefits. In addition to the new partner will establish a solid relationship and dynamic equivalence, enhance the export and dynamic exporters in the bilateral and multilateral levels of dialogue. This dynamic strategy means with international partners in the territory of the Russian Federation not sure of exploration and production projects for collaborative interaction, while enhancing the position of the Russian domestic power companies. China play the major role in the dynamic strategy in russia. In Chinese and dynamic collaboration, Russia faces two difficulties: the crux of the framework of regional export Chinese exclusive distribution rights and the provisions of the Russian capital transportation road. The Russian position in the power Chinese category has the following five characteristics: 1. In the Asia Pacific region, the main Chinese thing but it is not only the power consumption in russia. The Russian power policy to the east to success depends largely on the cooperation and China. 2. The Russian power policy on China rooted in the Russian Far East Development strategy. The dynamic growth of the eastern strategy has two interrelated to a regional power of capital growth and close to the Asia Pacific market. 3. Russia is planning application of export expenditure, basic facilities investment and the growth of other projects to promote international growth. 4. Russia and China meet abnormal power of enterprise in the Russian Federation and the domestic development of combination of stop. In the Russian ocean regional development project cooperation vision and China Company research. 5. Russia to China's power policy completion mechanism touches on the national level, power enterprise level, political action, government conferences, meetings and judicial framework contract level, and talks also speak of the other state enterprises to enter the market in the region to this achievement. An important objective is China power policy practice safe access to capital, ensure national economic, social and political stability. Chinese leaders seek down local economic growth of the power of excessive dependence, the emphasis is modified existing dynamic framework, within the unit area of the GDP energy consumption of the lowest invented the highest rate of the resources, limit the power to give birth and the cost impact of the situation. Above preferential policies is derived in a detailed plan of the Twelfth Five Year Plan (2017 - 2017) put forward: progress power give birth to, expansion state grid scale; comprehensive development of oil, natural gas and new energy. Understand that energy saving and renewable capital and reasonable application, improved power structure, the way to gradually replace coal development actively, reasonable application of international capital. At the same time, facing the way to handle China premises of oil and natural gas export dependent results, some planning request comprehensive exploitation of international capital to stop. However, with the increasing rate of Chinese power production is continuously reduced, oil and natural gas exports increased continuously. Control the excessive dependence on foreign capital to China dynamic economy vulnerable to domestic supplier action change. Is the main body of international dimension, the national energy policy. The international level is the main part China dynamic strategy, dynamic strategy is the main implementation of close cooperation and political leaders of the country national Power Corporation. In recent years, China's enterprises have expanded the their global business scale, including prospecting and mining, pipeline construction, interventional projects, export of equipment, oil and natural gas supply, power project standard share allocation and so on. The characteristics of the diversification policy China authorities to stop on the road, the supply of capital supply, direct access to Central Asian countries and Russia, the Middle East and North Africa, North and South American countries capital. So far, although China by many political and economic measures, the power of capital subject department still originated in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf region. But the process of diversification is not confined to the geographical level. China planning will continue with clean energy to replace coal, which can be rated as natural gas exports. Russia's role in the strategy of Chinese power is determined by its diversification policy definition. In the process of dealings with Russia, Chinese applied some useful wrist to complete its policies, including the political support, between the authorities and business consulting organization, establish the judicial framework and application of financial and political skills. Petroleum and natural gas cooperation between China and Russia history illustrates the inter country power policy tends to slowly make. Finally the dynamic collaborative discussion is based on original dynamic collaboration of positive factors, such as "the supplier of a flower fee" relationship, geographical proximity, the two economies corresponding to the demand, and so on. In the process of cooperation, and to establish the political motion form of a dialogue on enhancing bilateral compromise until the dynamic cooperation have played an important role, and has become one of the pillars of Sino Russian relations. Have an important impact on the growth and transformation of Russian international cooperation projects, including international power industry desire talks for oil and natural gas. The political dialogue and compromise (discount and credit) have positive impact on growth in the two industry collaboration in. The Russian national level and intervention of state-owned enterprises are actively promote cooperation firmly stop. However, in the category of oil supply talks stop much more agile, and natural gas talks experienced a series of changes of position and delay. Pricing is still the main topic of the relationship between Russia and Chinese power. Both sides are trying to through the collaborative process of collaboration with third parties actively to strengthen itself in the talks in the dominant position. On China, the third party is important in some countries from Central Asia; and on Russia, Japan and South Korea is an important third party. China will also grow relations with Russia as it ensures that the power of peace a department, will aim to progress power application rate and power frugal methods, use scientific way power sector growth, implementation of the new techniques, universal application of international capital and to seize the overseas market for social and economic sustained development has laid the foundation. China energy policy at the international level to make up for the gap of international capital, through the process of multiple road and capital supply ensures that the energy security, increase of foreign exchange reserves. China power consumption has become an important one of the Chinese stable increase in global oil and natural gas in the market. Russian inorganic in several biased expansion of the size of its movement: to increase oil and natural gas exports, then use infrastructure projects receiving funds from China, mining instrument Siberia and Far East region for the power of capital. Russia's high quality technicians can step in China's proposed energy projects, at the same time, the Russian in China's energy city ostentation and extravagance facing intense competition from other regional unified country, is in power relations between China and Russia is East and Central Asia with the power market constitutes a part of. The dynamic cooperation between Russia and China not only stable strategic partnership between the two countries, but also Asia Pacific regional energy security system set up the main part in the process of. The absolute return has not played a big role in the talks on the Sino Russian oil and natural gas process, the future did not exist between China and Russia Wuwei Shadow form of petroleum and natural gas cooperation between the supply of that. Although the two have been placed in the mold process of the talks, and consider some factors also need to focus on different stages. In order to analyze the absolute return results, we have developed a tracking analysis program, it can work on these two examples. The main track absolute return form of analysis result is the absolute return form did not play a decisive role in China and russia. But two countries proved always concern "shadow on the future", and in the process of the talks the different level of the cities with this kind of form, this means that Russia and in the capital will be hard to treat the dynamic relations between the two countries. On both sides of the consumer for a long time to review the debate business details for fixing the best talks agreement, coherent oil talks smoothly annotation model proposition is very fast. True to the supply of China Russia energy talks that mold is "best choice of fixing talks agreement", we can through the process evaluation to crank up the talks agreement plan is best to guess the country's action. Chinese prefer to look forward to the cooperation with Russia on the expensive infrastructure project may strive to allow Russia to assume the implementation of risk. We can speculate that China will have a decisive position in the talks, unless China that Russia's project is the best choice for it wrapped up talks agreement, or agreements on the fixation does not supply enough credit and investment. In the long run, the Russian "fixing talks agreement had better choose" value will fall, and with fixing agreement in China's interest to grow. Along with the increasing time discount rate, Russia in favor of fixing agreement. But because the time discount its value is not very high, so it takes a long time to stop talks. More risk is in the middle, analogy and the challenges ahead, Russia more willing to ensure that the position is now, but if possible will be each other's strategic choice of match Russia's strategic need, that will still have some opportunities for cooperation. 目录: |
