［8］Steven Northway, Gary Bull. International Forest and Forest Products Trade Model: Scenarios for China and Eastern Russia Forest Supply［R］. Forest Products Processing of Consumption and Trade, Washington D.C: Forest Trends, 2017. ［9］匿名. 俄罗斯出口政策对我市木材加工业的作用和对策建议［EB/OL］.(2017-11-09)［2017-04-02］.[CD#*2]manzhouli[CD#*2]net[CD#*2]cn.mht.［Anonymous.The impact of Russia Export Policy on the Wood Processing Industry in Suifen City and Suggestions［EB/OL］.�(2017-11-09)［2017-04-02］. [CD#*2]manzhouli[CD#*2]net[CD#*2]cn.mht.］[JP]�� Study on the Impact of Increasing Russia Export Tariff on China’s Timber Market� WANG Lan�hui�1 LIU Jun�chang�1 Steven Northway�2 Gary Bull�2 （1.School of Economics & Management, Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;�2.University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada）� Abstract Russia is the largest exporter of log to China. The Russian government recently announced an increase in its export tariff on log from the present 6.5% of export product value to 80% in January 2017. The impact from increasing Russia export tariff to China is simulated by the China Timber Market Model established in this paper. The conclusions are: the Northeast region of China will be affected most and the harvest pressure will be enhanced by the large�scale tariff increase. The harvest in the middle region will increase about 2% while the south and west regions will be hardly impacted. In a whole, the total harvest of timber in China will increase 3.23%. From the impact of inter�region trade, the timber from the middle region will flow into the northeast to compensate the impact from decrease of timber. Some policy suggestions are given accordingly: diversify the import channel so as to guarantee the timber security; governments should provide convenience and guidance for China’s forestry processing enterprises so as to clarify the industrid structure; due to the decrease of the exported amount of Russia log, most of plankings will be processed locally, which will promote the timber product structure adjustment and upgrading , then changing the leading role of lumber in product structure. Key words Russia； tariff； log； trade； impact |
