| 经济周期对于经济学的研究者来讲确定不是一个生疏的概念,一国微观经济的成长不免会潮起潮落,阅历绝对疾速增加的阶段和绝对降低阑珊的阶段,这些周期性涌现的经济扩大和压缩的景象就是经济周期。当今的经济学对经济周期的研究曾经不只仅局限于以一个国度单体作为研究对象,而常常研究必定区域内的两个国度,乃至解脱地舆地位的束缚去研究国与国之间的经济周期的关系成绩。国际外学者的研究注解,年夜多半的蓬勃国度微观经济的成长具有绝对来讲较高的分歧性。好比说经济协作成长组织(OECD)成员国之间就会具有较高的经济周期同步性。但是跟着经济全球化的成长,全球列国的经济成长趋势分歧,特别是2008年的全球金融危机以后,世界经济周期的同步性逐步增强。从而这一时光年夜量研究蓬勃国度和成长中国度经济周期之间关系的文献纷纭涌现,给笔者也供给了一个思想的启发。本文在参考了年夜量后人研究的基本之上,研究了中韩两国之间的经济成长关系,意在处理上面的成绩。起首,中韩两国固然地舆地位邻接,汗青关系悠长,然则作为一个成长中国度和一个蓬勃国度,二者之间究竟能否存在着经济周期同步性；其次,假如说中韩两国之间存在着经济周期同步性,那末这类关系面前的缘由是甚么,又是经由过程甚么渠道传导了如许的经济动摇；再次,国度之间经济动摇分歧是树立互相协作的条件和基本,假如中韩两国的经济同步趋向获得肯定,那末在如今世界的经济情况之下,中国和韩国应当从哪些方面增强两边协作从而增进彼此的成长。依照对下面的成绩的思虑,本文的构造和重要内容以下：第一部门导论简略引见了本文研究的重要内容和运用的办法,和研究对象的界定和数据的起源和处置,并简略剖析了本文的立异点和缺乏。第二部门文献综述引见了本文所要研究的重要的经济实际,对之前研究国度之间经济周期关系的相干文献停止了梳理,对文献当中的研究办法,相干实际和重要不雅点做了分类和总结。第三部门中韩经济周期同步性磨练运用两国的微观经济目标,最可以或许表现国度实体经济动摇情形的现实国际临盆总值增加率,和金融市场目标,股票指数的相干系数实证剖析肯定了两国之间经济成长同步的趋向,而且对数据进一步挖掘找出中韩经济同步面前的驱动身分其实重要是内部的配合冲击。第四部门中韩经济周期同步性的传导机制从两边商业方面,金融市场方面,政策调和方面和家当构造方面剖析两国之间经济动摇传导机制。特别在商业方面,对家当内商业和家当间商业的作用停止了辨别,并由此深刻剖析了家当机构对经济同步的作用。第五部门将来中韩经济协作对在现今世界经济格式之下的中韩经贸关系停止了进一步的瞻望,剖析了中韩关税联盟(FTA)的可行性和所带来的利益,异样也对两边的能够金融会作中韩泉币交换做了扼要的引见。第六部门结论回想本文的重要内容和不雅点。 Abstract: Economic cycle about economics researchers determined not a strange concept, the micro economic growth will inevitably the ebb and flow of the tides, absolute experience rapid increased stage and the absolute reduction of waning stage, the emergence of these cycles of economic expansion and compression of the scene is the economic cycle. Today's economics of the economic cycle research had not only to a country monomer as the research object, and often research must in the region of the two countries and free the shackles of the geographical position between research and the cycle of economic relations. International scholars' research notes, has the absolute high consistency in terms of most developed countries micro economic growth. Like the Economic Cooperation Organization (OECD) economic growth cycle synchronization between the Member States will have higher. But with the development of economic globalization, the global economic growth trend and differences, especially the 2008 global financial crisis, the world economy cycle synchronization gradually increased. To this time a large number of research flourishing nation and growth literature in the relationship between China's economic cycle are emerge, to the author also provides the inspiration of a thought. In this paper, in reference to the large amount of previous research on basic research, the economic growth of the relationship between China and South Korea, to deal with the results. First of all, China and South Korea is to position and adjacent relationship history is long, but as a Chinese growth degree and a booming country, whether there exists between the two economic cycle synchronization; secondly, if there is business cycle synchronization between the two countries, then why the face of this kind of relationship is what that is through what channel conduction such economic fluctuations; thirdly, economic differences between countries shake is to establish mutual cooperation and the basic conditions, if China and South Korea's economic trend synchronization affirmed, then under the economic situation in the world today, China and South Korea from what should enhance collaboration to enhance each other on both sides the growth of. In accordance with the consideration of the following achievements, and important content for the construction of the following: first part introduction briefly introduced the application and important content for the purpose of this paper is to study the approach, and the object of study the definition and data origin and disposal, and briefly analyzes the innovation points of this paper and the lack of. The second part of the literature review introduced in this paper to study the important economic reality, before the economic cycle relationship between nations and research related literatures combing, on the literature research method, coherent practical and important indecent point makes a summary and classification. Hone the third sector between China and Korea business cycle synchronization of micro economic goals in application of the two countries, will most likely performance country entity economic fluctuation situation of reality the GDP increase rate, and financial market, stock index of the coherent coefficient and empirical analysis to determine the between the two countries economic growth trend of synchronization and the data further mining find out China ROK economic synchronization in front of the driving factors in fact, important is internal matched with an impact. Aspects of the transmission mechanism of the Fourth Department of Sino Korean economic cycle synchronization from both sides of the business, financial markets, policy coordination and industrial structure analysis between the two countries economic fluctuations transmission mechanism. Special in business, influence of belongings in commercial and possessions between commercial stop to identify, and thus a profound analysis of the belongings of the economic effects. The future Sino Korean Economic Cooperation under the current world economy of China ROK economic and trade relations stopped further prospect, analyses the feasibility of China and South Korea Customs Union (FTA) and benefits brought about by the equally on both sides of the can finance will make South Korea currency exchange, makes a brief introduction. Conclusion the sixth departments recall the important contents of this paper and point of view. 目录: |
