The tense Situation in Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula is about to enter a new phase. Kim Jong-Un. entering his fifth year in rule. became “The Workers Party Chairman" through the seventh Workers‘ Party conference held in May 2016. solidif... The tense Situation in Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula is about to enter a new phase. Kim Jong-Un. entering his fifth year in rule. became “The Workers Party Chairman" through the seventh Workers‘ Party conference held in May 2016. solidifying his status as the "godlike” supreme commander. Also assuming the position of the Secretary of State through the People's Committee held in July 2016. Kim boasted his reign over both the Party and the cabinet. completing his one-man dictating system over the country. However. North Korea is in danger of reaching the breaking point after two nuclear tests in January and September 2016. which pushed the international society to impose political. economic. social and diplomatic sanctions in historic levels on the already-impoverished North Korea. Kim Jong-Un's choices will decide whether the North Korean regime will maintain stability or end in Contingency and collapses. Discussion on Contingency in North Korea began around 1990 with the disintegration of the Soviet Union. conversion of East-European socialist countries. unification of Germany and the death of Kim Il-Sung in 1994. After. North Korea's economic turmoil from the big famine in the mid-19905. exacerbation of Kim Jong-Il's health in 2008. Kim Jong-Il's death in 2011 and the reign of terror after Kim Jong-Un's taking of leadership all worked to reignite talks of Contingency in the North. Types of Contingency in the North were expected to be leadership crises. coup by the military. refugees and riots from famines. and influx of external information from reforms. Although North Korea‘s situation today seems stable on the outside. the suppressive regime and the reign of terror is inducing changes such as defection of the North Korean elites and economic crises. Furthermore. the international society‘s sanctions on the North give valid reasons to believe the possibility of Contingency in North Korea. Too many variables exist in analyzing the possibility of Contingency in North Korea. Past research lacked objectivity and ended in multiple different results coming from limited analyses of a few variables without experience. Moreover. with time. variables calculating the probability of Contingency such as the death of Kim Il-Sung and Kim Jong-Il became obsolete. a work of the past. Therefore. New discussion on Contingency an North Korea reflecting the current situation of the North Korean regime is necessary. To prevent errors due to political. economic. military and economic variables. the reaffirming process was conducted North Korean defectors who have served in the North Korean military and now engaged in government institute by the intesensified interview. And that is conducted to domestic experts on North Korea such as university professors, research institute professionals. government officials by the intesensified interview too. This research first analyzes the possibility of Contingency in North Korea through evaluation of the Kim Jong-Un regime's stability. followed up by the South Korean government's reactionary plans to such changes. Through two nuclear tests in 2016 and further. North Korea strives to earn the support of the international society as a nuclear power state and solve its economic problem as well as seize initiative in the Korean peninsula. However. due to international circumstances. countries. including China. would have difficulties acknowledging and supporting North Korea as so. Accordingly. the most important factor for North Korea's situation today would be whether it can get acknowledged as a nuclear state. which will decide whether the regime can maintain stability or dissolve into dramatic changes due to loss of leadership. mass defection. riots and coups. As such. in North Korea's one-man rule system. the dictatorship may result in collapse of power or regime. In polls by North Korean military defectors and interviews by North Korean experts. Kim Jong-Un's death is predicted to cause instability in the North Korean regime and result in confusion as his successor is not yet decided. This research provides the South Korean reactionary measures to Contingency in North Korea in both domestic and international ways. First. as North Korea is revealed to possess nuclear power. South Korea must consider the necessity of and measures against nuclear power itself. Also. South Korea must make plans to utilize the recently-defected North Korean elites and give new messages to the North. Moreover. as the most important factors influencing how the South Korean government reacts to the North is the positions of China and the U.S., South Korea should prepare consistent strategies accordingly. in detail. South Korea must first earn support of the 0.8. by setting goals for the unification of Korea when Contingency occur in North Korea. Next. diplomatic measures should continue to at least prevent China from refuting the decision of the United Nations. if the South Korean government prepares as such and unites the public. the crisis of Contingency in North Korea may turn out to be opportunities for the unification of Korea. ，韩语论文，韩语论文范文 |
