KIM. Jong Un officially declared “Kim, Jong Un Era” by holding the 7th Korean Workers Party Congress on 6th May 2016, after 36 years from the last congress, and became the chairman of Worker's party and the president of cabinet members. KJU's 5-year regime is being estimated to be maintaining its stable system after three-generation hereditary succession. And KJU is demonstrating its stability to their people and International Community by launching missiles monthly and by the 5th Nuclear Test, which was conducted on 9th September in 2016. However, when we take a close look at North Korea's inner system, we can find many problems and indicators which show the instability among North Korean elites has been increased. There were many North Koreans defected : waitresses working in China, Lee, Young Ho(the ambassador in UK), anonymous general officer. There were also the brutal purges of Jang Seong Tak, Lee Young Ho, Hyun Young Chul, Choi Hwi - on charge of abusing power, taking of high hand, having dissatisfaction. And these indicators left many questions to the direction of government policy to North Korea. Many studies on North Korea cry out various answers about the question, " to collapse or to last." However, current North Korean situation shows its socialism must have the limit and regime change is inevitable. And the reformation open from friendly socialist countries like the China, the Soviet Union, the Vietnam and their entrance into late socialism show many points. This study analyzes quiet changes in the power elites of Kim Jong Un's regime, compares the power appearance with the governance rule, to suggest the direction of future policy for North Korea by outlook the appearance of North Korea power elites. To study this theses, I depend on analysis of North Korea literature and various data. I used the material on the web site of Ministry of Unification, in terms of specific data about North Korea power elites. And news and SNS material were also used about purges. As the specified category, first, I analyzed the changing processes of power elites in China, Soviet Union, Vietnam those countries entered late socialism earlier than North Korea by searching the interrelation of changing factors, and used the analysis as the analytic model. Secondly, I analyzed the phenomenons of power elites from the Workers Party convention, party's representative's convention, supreme people's assembly, and compared them. And I also analyzed North Korean social system and ideas from North Korea socialism constitution, and the change of purging processes. Thirdly, I analyzed the aspect of change of new power elites in the party, the cabinet, and the military, sustaining KJU regime. Fourthly, I limited the category of this study to give an outlook of the policy for North Korea by analyzing the tendency of the change of the power elites. Due to the lack of positive material, especially specified literature or data in terms of dissension and confrontation, this study has many point to be studied more. Concerning the necessary conditions of power elites change for late socialism of North Korea, I searched the reformation open processes of China, Soviet Union, Vietnam, and analyzed the changing process of North Korea power elites. One of the necessary conditions for late socialism is exchange from old generation to younger generation in power elites. In the early part of reformation open term in China, Soviet Union and Vietnam, they enacted regulations to institutionalize the retirement and resignation of core power elites, change the generation of power elites and reformed personnel system. Secondly, a tendency was found that the portion of reformative officers was getting bigger than the portion of revolutionary officers' during the process of reformation open toward late socialism. The third, worsened dissension and confrontation among power elites were found in the process of reformation open, those were mainly originated in the reformative power elites. The forth, in the process of reformation open for late socialism, civilian service of the power elits was being progressed in a sense. In China, Soviet Union, and in Vietnam the status of the military was downgraded, and the portion of elites from the military decreased. As it show, the tendency of civilian service differentiated depending on conditions like domestic politics normalization and systemization, military control. However, late socialism is possible only after the influence of the military decreased and minimized. I compared and analyzed the quiet change of power elites maintaining North Korea system by comparing and analyzing the phenomena shown during the party conventions, party representative conventions, supreme peoples assembly. And I analyzed the political idea – Juche and the military first policy- of the North Korea socialism constitution from each Kim’s era(Kim Il Sung, Kim Jung Il, Kim Jong Un) and the purging processes. From this analysis, several tendencies of change of the power elites were found. First, in terms of the North Korean Worker’s Party, the power elites changed to strengthen the power elites themselves. The role and the status of the Political Bureau became strong, the change of power elite in Secretary Bureau was little. The power elites of the Central military committee of the party were weakened. Secondly, the status of power elites from North Korea People’s Army was moved from national defense to state affairs. In national affairs committee, various elites were positioned from politic, economic, social, culture field including military field. The third, the power elites from administrative organization and the cabinet became less political. The power elites of standing committee of supreme people’s committee change little. The power elites in the cabinet were professionalized and their age became younger. I analyzed the tendency of the change of the new power elites potential supporting KJU regime and tried to give an outlook based on the assessments. (1) I could find several characters by analyzing the relationship among the party, the cabinet, and the military power elites. First, North Korea will try to normalize the function of the party, and to strengthen and maintain the integrated system of power elites of the party, the cabinet, and the military. KJU will recover the function of the party, and strengthen the control of the states organization by systematic procedure and precess. And will maintain the integrated system and position many power elites with reiteration on the party, the cabinet and the military power organization to check and to control one another. (2) KJU will strengthen the control on the military, make the party and the military to check each other, by strengthening the cabinet, the administrative organization. Since 2012, the start of KJU regime, the interest projects belonged to NKPA(North Korea People’s Army) were moved to the cabinet. I assess this can be estimated as a measure to strengthen the administrative origination relatively weak. (3) The change of the relationship among the party, the cabinet, and the military is on going. However, the change of the power elites from each organization will influence the continued change on the power structure. I expected as followed based on the analysis of tendency for the change of the North Korean power elites. (1) North Korea power elites evolved for their generations. From the first to the second generation were call the revolution pioneering era, the elites born before the year 1940, they experienced the Korean War in their age of ten at least. Now most of them retired. The third to forth generation were called as succeeding revolution era. They worked as the main power during Kim, Jung Il’s era. The fifth to sixth generation, under sixty five years old, they are being emerged as the main power elites during Kim, Jong Un’s era. Especially, from the power elites during the KJU’s regime, the percentage of their 40’s and 50’s are 20% from the party, 58% from the cabinet, 50% from the military. And average age of newly promoted personnels from the party changed from 72 to 67, the age of the newly promoted personnels from the cabinet changed from 68 to 57, the age of the personnels from the military changed 70 to 62, getting younger. (2) The power elites are moving flexibly among the party, the cabinet, and the military. According to the North Korea constitution, the center of gravity was being changed among the party, the cabinet, and the military. From the 1994 to 2009, KJI era, the weakened party, strengthened military, spread power of the cabinet were shown. From the 2009 to 2011, KJU preparing his succession, recovered party power, weakened military, power centered cabinet. After 2012, the beginning of KJU regime, strengthened party, maintain military power, sustained cabinet power. This changes were influenced from political, economical and military related events inside and outside of North Korea. (3) The characters of North Korea power elites are changing similar to the necessary conditions for late socialism. And the phenomena found during the initial term of reformation open in adjacent socialism countries were also found in North Korea. ① The young officials emerged and the change of reformative power elites continue. And with the beginning of KJU regime, the power elites generation exchange is on going. And it is expected the reformative power elites would lead the future North Korea regime after retirement of the conservative poser elites. ② Secondly, the technocrats would keep being promoted, the revolutionary officials would decrease in their number, with reinforcing security organization to control North Korean people. As North Korean socialism system maintained, the revolutionary power elites declined. And large portion of the power elites were the officials from the University. ③ There would be continued personnel changes in the military core elites for KJU to control the military. There have been 5 to 6 times of personnel changes on the position of chief of staff and on the head of department of the military force for. This means KJU is trying to control the military power, it is very important to control the military because the military first policy has become overweighted. Therefore there will be shift change in the military core elites. I suggested the direction of the policy to North Korea for late socialism based on the result of the analysis. The first, we need to take systematically the advantage of dissension and confrontation among power elites of KJU regime. We have to analyze dissension and confrontation, political tendency of the core elites, and to integrate the analyzed data. The second, we need to be prepared to the change among the party, the cabinet, and the military power elites, while KJU regime maintains. For that KJU political system and power structure should be studied continually. The more specified analysis is required firstly especially on the change of the power structure normalizing the party function weakening the military power. Secondly, analysis on the confrontation factor related to the instability among the party, the cabinet and the military. Thirdly, the leadership of KJU and the close core elites and the interrelationship should be analyzed, and the data should be well managed. When we track on the reformative elites the data will give a lot of plus factors on the direction of the policy to North Korea. After the year 2016, KJU regime will continue set policies through official conference by party to control the regime power, and strengthen the party’s policy decision function. And KJU will normalize the party’s function, keep putting the center of the gravity on the party, controlling the cabinet and the military. And in terms of the military, the purge and demotion will be continued changing the generation, to maintain the control of the military. The hunting down on anti-regime forces will be continued, the discipline of North Korea will be kept by severe purges. Largely, KJU will keep his regime power centered on the party controlling the military and the national organizations. Keynotes : Kim, Jong Un, Social shift, Power Elites, Comparison and Analysis on the phenomena, a Quiet change, Purge, late socialism, North Korea socialism constitution, the relationship among the party, the cabinet and the military, the cabinet committee, policy to North Korea ，韩语毕业论文，韩语论文范文 |
