| 摘要：区域经济一体化近几年来成长敏捷,构建自在商业区已成了推进区域经济协作和战胜经济一体化负面效应的最有用、最便捷和绝对轻易的门路。在此配景下,中国与韩国的自在商业区会谈于2012年正式启动。电机产物商业是两国商业自在化会谈中一个极具争议的方面,同时也是中韩双边商业最重要的构成部门。是以,有需要就中韩自贸区对双边电机产物商业发生的经济效应停止深刻研究。本文基于1992-2012年中韩经贸数据,从竞争性、互补性、技巧庞杂度和家当内商业四个角度周全考核了中韩电机产物商业的构造特点和成长趋向,从新审阅了商业竞争和协作的格式。成果注解,韩国占相对优势的局势已产生了转变,中国电机产物竞争力逐步加强,部门产物竞争力已跨越韩国,但整体而言双边商业仍具有很强的互补性,产物技巧差距逐步减少,家当内商业趋高,双边商业潜力伟大。本文随后运用GTAP模子剖析了中韩商业自在化对双边电机产物商业的作用。研究成果注解,中韩商业自在化对两国微观经济和商业的作用利年夜于弊；双边商业自在化带来的商业前提改良和出口增长将增进我国社会福利的进步；我国电机家当的总产出和总出口都邑扩大,且重要表现在对韩国出口的增长；双边商业自在化将构成明显的商业发明和商业转移后果,个中日本和美国遭到商业转移的作用水平最深；整体而言中韩自在商业区的构建将为我国微观经济和电机产物商业的成长发明新的契机。 Abstract: Abstract: the integration of regional economy in recent years the rapid development, construction of free trade zone has become to promote regional economic cooperation and overcome the negative effects of the economic integration of the most useful and convenient and relatively easy way. Under this background, Chinese talks with South Korea Free Trade Area officially launched in 2012. Motor product business is a highly controversial issue of bilateral trade liberalization talks in terms of bilateral business is also the most important part of. So there is a need to trade on the economic effects of the commercial product of bilateral motor stop deep research. This paper 1992-2012 years China ROK economic and trade data based on, from the competitive and complementary, complex technique and belongings in commercial four angle comprehensive assessment of the ROK motor product structural characteristics and development trend, from review the commercial competition and cooperation of the format. Results annotations, South Korea accounted for relative advantage of the situation has changed, China motor product competitiveness gradually strengthen, Department of the competitiveness of products has crossed South Korea, but overall bilateral trade still has very strong complementary sex, gradually reduce the product's technical gap and belongings commercial trend high and bilateral commercial potential is great. The application of GTAP model to analyze the Sino Korea trade liberalization impact on bilateral commercial motor products. Research notes, China and South Korea free trade of on both micro economic and commercial influence in Italy than harm; bilateral trade liberalization of trade condition improved and export growth will promote the progress of our country's social welfare; expand China Motor possessions of the total output and total export cities and important manifestation of growth in exports to South Korea; bilateral trade liberalization will constitute obvious consequences will create a business and commercial transfer, Sino Japan and the United States by commercial transfer affects the level of the deep; the whole China and South Korea Free Trade Area Construction for the growth of our country microeconomic and motor product invented the new opportunity. 目录: 摘要 4-5 ABSTRACT 5-6 1 绪论 9-19 1.1 选题背景 9-10 1.2 探讨目的及意义 10 1.2.1 探讨目的 10 1.2.2 探讨意义 10 1.3 文献综述 10-17 1.3.1 中韩贸易近况探讨 11 1.3.2 中韩贸易关系探讨 11-13 1.3.3 自由贸易区的经济效应探讨 13-16 1.3.4 文献评述 16-17 1.4 探讨内容与思路 17-19 1.4.1 探讨内容 17 1.4.2 探讨思路 17-19 2 中韩自贸协议产生的背景及谈判进程 19-27 2.1 中韩自贸协议产生的背景 19-23 2.2 中韩自贸协议的谈判进程 23-25 2.3 自贸区谈判进程中的核心问题 25-26 2.4 小结 26-27 3 中韩机电产品贸易关系略论 27-47 3.1 中韩机电产业的贸易近况略论 27-31 3.1.1 中韩机电产业贸易规模 27-30 3.1.2 中韩机电产业贸易结构 30-31 3.2 中韩机电贸易技术复杂度对比 31-34 3.3 中韩机电贸易的竞争性略论 34-39 3.3.1 贸易竞争力指标选择 34-36 3.3.2 中韩机电产品竞争力对比 36-39 3.4 中韩机电贸易的互补性略论 39-42 3.4.1 贸易互补性指标选择 39-40 3.4.2 中韩机电产品贸易互补性 40-42 3.5 中韩机电产业内贸易度测算 42-46 3.6 小结 46-47 4 中韩自由贸易区的贸易效应理论略论 47-51 4.1 静态效应略论 47-48 4.2 动态效应略论 48-50 4.3 小结 50-51 5 中韩自由贸易协议对双边机电产品贸易效应的测定 51-68 5.1 核心模型——GTAP模型 51-53 5.1.1 GTAP模型的理论结构 52-53 5.1.2 GTAP模型的数据来源 53 5.1.3 GTAP模型的求解原理 53 5.2 中韩自由贸易区模拟方案设计 53-57 5.2.1 国别与产品分组 53-54 5.2.2 模拟前基准方案设计 54-55 5.2.3 敏感产品的确定 55-57 5.2.4 降税冲击方案 57 5.3 中韩自由贸易区的模拟结果略论 57-66 5.3.1 静态贸易效应 60-64 5.3.2 动态贸易效应 64-66 5.4 小结 66-68 6 结论与政策建议 68-72 6.1 结论 68-69 6.2 政策建议 69-71 6.3 创新与不足 71-72 参考文献 72-75 附录 75-81 致谢 81 |
