| 新世纪以来，经济全球化高速成长，韩语论文，区域经济一体化也进入了史无前例的成长态势，很多国度、地域都把参加自在商业区作为融入经济全球化的有用门路。金融危机后，中韩两国也加速了一体化过程。2010年5月，中韩两国签订了原谅备忘录，正式预备中韩自在商业区协定，积极就敏感部门停止看法交流与研究。本文以构建中韩自在商业区的经济效应为研究对象，起首引见了自在商业区实际，为后文的剖析奠基了实际基本；其次简述了中韩商业的互补性和竞争性，剖析了中韩自在商业区构建的条件和基本；再次在前几章铺垫基本之上，采取线性回归模子来丈量中韩自在商业区的成立对双边商业范围的作用；运用协整和Granger因果磨练的办法，对中韩自在商业区的构建对双边家当内商业比重的变更趋向停止实证磨练；并自创KIEP(2005a)运用可盘算普通平衡(CGE)模子模仿的成果，韩语论文，剖析了构建中韩自在商业区对两国GDP、经济福利及商业前提的作用。最初，依据前两章的剖析成果和第二章的实际指点，扼要提出政策建议。本文在以下方面停止了摸索性的立异研究：从自在商业区对双边商业形式的作用及家当内商业效应视角，运用协整剖析的办法商量了构建中韩自在商业区的共赢后果。 Abstract: Since the beginning of the new century, the rapid growth of economic globalization, regional economic integration also entered the unprecedented growth of the situation, many countries and regions are put in free trade area as into useful opportunities of economic globalization. After the financial crisis, China and South Korea also accelerated the integration process. April 5, 2010, China and South Korea signed a memorandum of understanding, officially ready to China and South Korea free commercial agreement, on sensitive departments actively to stop the exchange of views and discussion. Based on the economic effect of establishing Sino Korea Free Trade Area as the research object, first introduced the actual free trade area, analysis for the foundation of the actual basic; secondly China ROK trade competition and complementary, analyzes the conditions and the construction of China South Korea free trade area; again in the first few basic chapter on the linear regression model to take the effect of the establishment of free trade area between China and South Korea to measure bilateral business scope; integration and Granger causality method applied to hone co construction of commercial property in the proportion of bilateral change trends between China and South Korea Free Trade Area of the empirical test; and from the KIEP (2005a) application can calculate the general equilibrium (CGE the results of analysis) model, the construction of China South Korea free trade area, the economic welfare effect on both GDP and commercial premises. At first, based on the analysis results of the first two chapters and the practical guidance of the second chapter, the policy recommendations are put forward. This paper in the following ways to stop the creative research simply touching: from free trade area impact on bilateral trade form and belongings in commercial perspective effect, cointegration analysis method to discuss the construct a win-win consequence of China South Korea free trade area. 目录: 摘要 6-7 Abstract 7 第1章 绪论 10-15 1.1 选题背景及意义 10-11 1.2 国内外探讨近况 11-12 1.3 探讨内容与思路 12-13 1.4 探讨措施 13 1.5 创新点及不足 13-15 第2章 中韩自由贸易区构建的理论基础 15-23 2.1 理论回顾 15-16 2.2 自由贸易区的经济效应 16-23 2.2.1 自由贸易区的静态效应 17-20 2.2.2 自由贸易区的动态效应 20-23 第3章 中韩贸易关系的互补性与竞争性 23-35 3.1 中韩贸易关系概述 23-25 3.2 中韩贸易关系互补性略论 25-29 3.2.1 中韩贸易结构的互补性 25-29 3.2.2 中韩市场互补性略论 29 3.3 中韩贸易关系竞争性略论 29-33 3.3.1 中韩出口市场的竞争性 30-31 3.3.2 中韩出口产品的竞争性 31-33 3.4 中韩关税近况 33-35 第4章 构建中韩自由贸易区经济效应的实证略论 35-45 4.1 构建中韩自由贸易区的贸易扩大效应 35-37 4.1.1 模型构建 35-36 4.1.2 数据选取及结果估计 36 4.1.3 估计结果略论 36-37 4.2 构建中韩自由贸易区的产业内贸易效应 37-41 4.2.1 区域经济一体化与产业内贸易 37-38 4.2.2 略论措施及数据选取 38-39 4.2.3 协整略论 39-41 4.3 构建中韩自由贸易区的福利效应 41-45 4.3.1 模型及略论措施介绍 41-42 4.3.2 模拟结果及略论 42-45 第5章 政策建议 45-49 5.1 敏感产业的过渡 45-46 5.2 贸易结构的优化 46-47 5.2.1 缩减中韩贸易逆差 46 5.2.2 大力发展产业内贸易 46-47 5.3 多边合作框架 47-49 结论 49-50 致谢 50-51 参考文献 51-54 附录 54-61 附录1 中国对韩贸易进出口情况(单位:亿美元,%) 54-55 附录2 中韩分类贸易专业化指数及产业内贸易指数 55-58 附录3 中韩分类贸易显性比较优势指数与B指数 58-61 攻读硕士学位期间发表的论文 61 |
